As Salem merrily plans a return to business as usual

The economic establishment accepts the world soon won't be able to meet energy demands, but wants to keep quiet about it

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It is very hard for the average person in the street to come to a sensible conclusion on peak oil. It's a subject that prompts a passionate polarisation of views. The peak oilists sometimes sound like those extraordinary Christians with sandwich boards proclaiming that the end of the world is nigh. In contrast, the the international economic establishment – including the International Energy Agency (IEA) – has one very clear purpose in mind at all times: don't panic. Their mission seems to be focused on keeping jittery markets calm.

Faced with these options the majority of people shrug their shoulders in confusion and ignore the trickle of whistleblowers, industry insiders and careful analysts who have been warning of the imminent decline in oil for over a decade now.

Remember the Queen's question – that uncannily accurate and strikingly obvious question she put to economists at the London School of Economics a year ago after the financial crisis: did no one see it coming? Apply that question to peak oil and the answer is that many people did see it coming but they were marginalised, bullied into silence and the evidence was buried in the small print.

Take the 2008 edition of World Energy Outlook, the annual report on which the entire energy industry and governments depend. It included the table also published by the Guardian today, and the version I saw had shorter intervals on the horizontal axis. What it made blindingly clear was that peak oil was somewhere in 2008/9 and that production from currently producing fields was about to drop off a cliff. Fields yet to be developed and yet to be found enabled a plateau of production and it was only "non-conventional oil" which enabled a small rise. Think tar sands of Canada, think some of the most climate polluting oil extraction methods available. Think catastrophe.

What made this little graph so devastating was that it estimated energy resources by 2030 that were woefully inadequate for the energy-hungry economies of India and China. Business as usual in oil production threatens massive conflict over sharing it.

Now, this all seemed pretty gigantic news to me but guess where the World Energy Outlook chose to put this graph? Was it in the front, was it prominently discussed in the foreword? Did it cause headlines around the world. No, no, no. It was buried deep into the report and no reference was made to it in the press conference a year ago.

The fear is that panicky markets can cause enormous damage – panic-buying that prompts fights over resources, which in turn could lead to power cuts in some places and other such mayhem. But so far in facing this huge challenge, our political/economic system seems unable to cope with reality. We are forced to carry on living in an illusion that we have so much time to adapt to post-oil that we don't even need to be talking or thinking much about what a world without plentiful oil would look like. Reality has become too dangerous.

So in reply to the Queen's question of a few years hence, we did see it coming but we chose to ignore it.

The Most Awesome Book Review EVER

The raw material supply for the Freakonomics authors. Image by SerenityRose via Flickr

Elizabeth Kolbert on SuperFreakonomics in the New Yorker.

For Your Calendar

The Fellowship of Reconciliation presents

Claude AnShin Thomas -- Zen Buddhist Monk, Vietnam Veteran, and Award-Winning Author of "AT HELL'S GATE - A Soldier's Journey from War to Peace"

Public Talk on Sunday, November 22, 2009 at 7:30 p.m. entitled "Healing and Peace - The Hard Work of Transformation."

The talk will be given at First Congregational United Church of Christ, 700 Marion St NE, Salem, OR.

Claude AnShin Thomas traveled a remarkable journey from the devastating effects of experiencing childhood violence and combat to finding peace with his unpeacefulness. In order to find new possibilities to live, we need to learn about our conditioning to violence and how to embody peace.

A once-in-a-lifetime blog

Blog on a far-too-little discussed subject: planning for what happens when you cross that great divide over to the (real) far side. By the author of an excellent book, "Grave Matters."

What hath God rot?

Image via Wikipedia

Best Craigslist spelling so far: "Rot iron pan/utensil hanger."

We can NOT shop our way to a greener world

Word.

How many times have you heard the argument that small green actions lead to bigger ones?

I've heard it hundreds of times: habits that might scarcely register in their own right are still useful because they encourage people to think of themselves as green, and therefore to move on to tougher actions.

A green energy expert once tried to convince me that even though rooftop micro wind turbines are useless or worse than useless in most situations, they're still worth promoting because they encourage people to think about their emissions. It's a bit like the argument used by anti-drugs campaigners: the soft stuff leads to the hard stuff.

I've never been convinced by this argument. In my experience, people use the soft stuff to justify their failure to engage with the hard stuff. Challenge someone about taking holiday flights six times a year and there's a pretty good chance that they'll say something along these lines:

I recycle everything and I re-use my plastic bags, so I'm really quite green.

A couple of years ago a friend showed me a cutting from a local newspaper: it reported that a couple had earned so many vouchers from recycling at Tesco that they were able to fly to the Caribbean for a holiday.

The greenhouse gases caused by these flights outweigh any likely savings from recycling hundreds or thousands of times over, but the small actions allow people to overlook the big ones and still believe that they are environmentally responsible.

Being a cynical old git, I have always been deeply suspicious of the grand claims made for consumer democracy: that we can change the world by changing our buying habits. There are several problems with this approach:

• In a consumer democracy, some people have more votes than others, and those with the most votes are the least inclined to change a system that has served them so well.

• A change in consumption habits is seldom effective unless it is backed up by government action. You can give up your car for a bicycle - and fair play to you - but unless the government is simultaneously reducing the available road space, the place you've vacated will just be taken by someone who drives a less efficient car than you would have driven (traffic expands to fill the available road-space). Our power comes from acting as citizens - demanding political change - not acting as consumers.

• We are very good at deceiving ourselves about our impacts. We remember the good things we do and forget the bad ones.

I'm not saying that you shouldn't always try to purchase the product with the smallest impact: you should. Nor am I suggesting that all ethical consumption is useless. Fairtrade products make a real difference to the lives of the producers who sell them; properly verified goods - like wood certified by the Forest Stewardship Council or fish approved by the Marine Stewardship Council - are likely to cause much less damage than the alternatives. But these small decisions allow us to believe that our overall performance is better than it really is.

So I wasn't surprised to see a report in Nature this week suggesting that buying green products can make you behave more selfishly than you would otherwise have done. Psychologists at the University of Toronto subjected students to a series of cunning experiments (pdf). First they were asked to buy a basket of products; selecting either green or conventional ones. Then they played a game in which they were asked to allocate money between themselves and someone else. The students who had bought green products shared less money than those who had bought only conventional goods.

The researchers call this the "licensing effect". Buying green can establish the moral credentials that license subsequent bad behaviour: the rosier your view of yourself, the more likely you are to hoard your money and do down other people.

Then they took another bunch of students, gave them the same purchasing choices, then introduced them to a game in which they made money by describing a pattern of dots on a computer screen. If there were more dots on the right than the left they made more money. Afterwards they were asked to count the money they had earned out of an envelope.

The researchers found that buying green had such a strong licensing effect that people were likely to lie, cheat and steal: they had established such strong moral credentials in their own minds that these appeared to exonerate them from what they did next. Nature uses the term "moral offset", which I think is a useful one.

So perhaps guilt is good after all. Campaigners are constantly told that guilt-tripping people is counterproductive: we have to make people feel better about themselves instead. These results suggest that this isn't very likely to be true. They also offer some fascinating insights into the human condition. Maybe the cruel old Christian notion of original sin wasn't such a bad idea after all.

Organizing a Better Salem

Some dates to put on your calendar for community gardens:

We have entered the rainy and blustery season, and our time is now devoted to harvesting the last of the crops, putting our gardens to bed, resting and reflecting. In this process, we are overwhelmed with a humble sense that we could not have grown the program without all of you, your thoughts and your passion for community gardens. So thank you! We are on the right path to creating healthy, vibrant and sustainable communities!!!

Below you will find some current hands-on projects that need your support and participation:

First Fall Gardens Program Meeting: Thursday, November 12th, 2009 (3:30-7 pm)

We are in the process of planning a community gardens meeting schedule, with the intention of bringing key garden volunteers into a newly developed Head Start to Garden program. To accomplish this, we are scheduling the first fall community gardens meeting on the same day as our next Head Start to Garden meeting, which is set for Thursday, November 12th from 3:30-5pm at Community Action’s main office (2475 Center St. NE). We will flow from the nitty-gritty of the Head Start to Garden program into some broader issues and focus, with the broader discussion happening over a potluck dinner. You are welcome to come just for the potluck, which will start after 5pm.

And then…

IGNITE SALEM – Thursday, November 12th, 2009 (7:45-10pm) @ Northern Lights TheaterPub

On this same night, I will be presenting a 7 minute, 20 slide power-point presentation on how we as a community can support the youth of Salem-Keizer in planting the seeds of peace, healing, forgiveness and food security. This will be one of 14 creative/techie presentations. For more info, check here: http://ignitesalem.com

Finally…

FAMILY VOLUNTEER DAY 2009: 11/21/09 (9-noon) in the SE Salem Neighborhood

On Saturday, November 21st, community partners are coming together to facilitate the ongoing tradition of raking leaves throughout the SE Salem (roughly between 17th and 25th----State and Mission). This is a project that Wayne Crowder of Salem Leadership Foundation began and is now passing it off to the community, and many partners are coming together, to LEAF IT TOGETHER, including Hands On Mid Willamette Valley, City of Salem, City of Salem, SESNA, Willamette University and more. We will be meeting on the 21st at Capital Park Wesleyan Church/SE Salem Community Center at 9am to begin this project, with an aim to hit the houses of seniors and people in need, to connect with neighbors, etc., etc., etc, and we need your help! Come with your rake in hand, gloves on and prepared to work as a team to build and revitalize community.

And that’s all she wrote for now folks. Thank you, and please feel free to reply with any questions. Marion Polk Food Share is close to launching a new website, and the gardens will have a blog, therefore that will be the new way of getting updates to you.

Sincerely,

Jordan Blake
Gardens Project Manager
Marion Polk Food Share
Imagine…NO Hunger

P.S.

Here are some “unofficial” stats from this 2009 season:

• Garden produce grown and shared: 59,815 pounds
• Garden volunteer hours: Coming close to 5000 hours
• Number of youth involved in garden projects: 400
• Number of low/moderate income volunteers: 180
• Value of in-kind donations: $12,000

P.P.S. Check out last month’s Living Culture (www.livingcultureonline.com). The Food Share Sustainable Community Gardens Program is highlighted in one of the episodes.

Growth is to sustainability what intercourse is to virginity

Image via Wikipedia

Well, the political season is gearing up here in Salem so we're going to hear a lot about candidates who support the particular absurdity peddled as "sustainable growth," which, like the belief in Santa Claus, makes people feel good despite the phenomenon in question never having existed outside the realm of myth.

The laws of sustainability are these. Bottom line: you can have growth (increased use of materials and energy) or you can have sustainability. Growth is to sustainability what intercourse is to virginity.

City Boards & Commissions: Applicants needed now

After seeing the City Council majority's disdain for actual public participation and its shabby, shameful treatment of the Parks and Recreation Advisory Board on the Minto-Brown easements sellout, it's tempting to ignore this notice about boards and commissions vacancies. But if there's anything Salem needs more than for good people to get more involved, I don't know what it is, so here's the announcement.

The [Salem] Boards and Commissions Committee is scheduled to meet Thursday, November 17th, at noon, to reappoint and appoint members. I am asking for your help with recruiting for new applicants.

Listed below Current Boards and Commissions vacancies -

• Airport Advisory Commission (1)
• Citizen Advisory Board (1)
• Citizen Budget Committee (1) - Ward 5
• Citizen Police Review Board (1)
• Downtown Advisory (1) - Business Owner within the Downtown District
• Housing Advisory Commission (4) - Senior, Social Services, Housing, Development and Finance, and (1) recommendation from the City of Keizer
• Housing and Urban Development Advisory Commission (3) - Housing, Neighborhood Association, Human Rights
• Human Rights and Relations Advisory Commission (7) ... 1 is for a student/youth
• North Gateway Advisory Board (1)
• Salem Library Advisory Board (1)
• Senior Center Advisory Board (3) - At large
• West Salem Advisory Board (1) - At large

The Boards and Commissions website has been updated with current vacancy information and applicants can apply on-line or print off the form and mail it in the City Manager's Office, 555 Liberty St., SE - Rm 220, Salem, Oregon 97301

Please don't hesitate to contact me if you have any questions.

Thank you,
Linda Cate
Mayor and City Manager's Office
503-588-6255 x7269

Graffiti isn't cool. Call 371-GANG to report tags

Image via Wikipedia

Salem has a real problem with graffiti. Whole books can be written about the social pathology that graffiti represents and the futility of trying to leave it to the police to resolve. Salem seems headed down that track, which is a perfect setup for a vicious cycle of graffiti crackdowns and flareups as testosterone-poisoned young males on both sides of the equation get into a classical primate dominance contest with everybody the worse off and lots of collateral damage all around.

Incidents of graffiti have significantly increased over the past three months throughout Salem, with the past week being particularly busy. Thankfully, in most cases property owners have been compliant with rapid removal. In some cases the Graffiti Abatement Team has responded to the area and removed graffiti, only to have it get tagged again within a matter of days. While this high volume of calls has created some delay in the response time of the Graffiti Abatement Team, we ask for patience from the public as we work very hard to catch up on calls, and we also ask for your vigilance in reporting and removing graffiti in a timely manner. If you do remove graffiti, please remember to take a photo first and send it to knelson@cityofsalem.net Also, remember that graffiti is a crime. Please report in-progress crimes immediately by calling 911 and report suspicious activity.

Our community has been very aggressive at keeping graffiti in check, and we want to thank you for being our partner in fighting crime and not allowing the vandals to win!

Graffiti Hotline: 503-371-4264

Sgt. Doug Carpenter
Salem Police Department
Crime Prevention Unit
555 Liberty St SE #130
Salem, Oregon 97301
503-588-6050 ext 7030
dcarpenter@cityofsalem.net

Nice short summary on the need to rebuild the trains

Americans are great for killing things and then wanting to "preserve" the remnants of the things killed. Thus we have beautiful restored stations serving an emaciated and crippled rail network. Image via Wikipedia

James Howard Kunstler, from the foreward to "Waiting for a Train."

Since then, train travel in the United States has become a pretty bare-bones affair. Amtrak has become the laughingstock of the world. Most Americans now living have never even been passengers on a train -- for them it's as outmoded as the stagecoach.

The final three-decade blowout of the cheap fossil-fuel fiesta led to the supremacy of the automobile and the fabulous network of highways that provided so much employment and so many real-estate development opportunities. This is all rather unfortunate because we are on the verge of experiencing one of the sharpest discontinuities in human history.

We're heading into a permanent global oil crisis. It is going to change the terms of everyday life very starkly. We will be a far less affluent nation than we were in the 20th century. The automobile is now set to become a diminishing presence in our lives. We will not have the resources to maintain the highways that made Happy Motoring so normal and universal.

The sheer prospect of permanent energy-resource problems has, in my view, been the prime culprit behind the cratering of our financial system for the simple reason that reduced energy "inputs" lead inexorably to the broad loss of capacity to service debt at all levels: personal, corporate, government. It's quite a massive problem, and it's not going away anytime soon, which is why I call it "The Long Emergency."

There are many additional pieces to it, including very troubling prospects for agriculture, for commerce, manufacturing -- really for all the "normal" activities of daily life in an "advanced" civilization.

I think we're going to need trains again desperately. Among the systems in trouble (and headed for more, very soon) is commercial aviation. In my opinion, the airline industry as we know it will cease to exist in five years.

Combine this with the threats to our car culture -- including resumed high fuel costs and the equal probability of scarcities and shortages, along with falling incomes and lost access to credit -- and you have a continental-sized nation that nobody can travel around.

Rebuilding the nation's passenger railroad has got to be put at the top of our priority list. We had a system not so long ago that was the envy of the world; now we have service that the Bulgarians would be ashamed of.

The tracks are still lying out there rusting in the rain, waiting to be fixed. The job doesn't require the reinvention of anything -- we already know how to do it. Rebuilding the system would put scores of thousands of people to work at meaningful jobs at all levels. The fact that we're barely talking about it shows what an unserious people we have become.

Rebuilding the American passenger-railroad system has an additional urgent objective: We need a doable project that can build our confidence and sense of collective purpose in facing all the other extraordinary challenges posed by the long emergency -- especially rebuilding local networks of commerce and relocalizing agriculture.

There's been a lot of talk about "hope" in our politics lately. Real hope is generated among people who are confident in their abilities to contend with the circumstances that reality sends their way, proving to themselves that they are competent and able to respond intelligently to the imperatives of their time.

We are, in effect, our own generators of hope. Rebuilding the American railroad system is an excellent place to start recovering our sense of purpose.